Load-unload response ratio——An interplay between earthquake prediction and mechanics

YIN Xiangchu; LIU Yue

doi:10.6052/1000-0992-13-075

Volume 43 Issue 6

Nov. 2013

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YIN Xiangchu, LIU Yue. Load-unload response ratio——An interplay between earthquake prediction and mechanics[J]. Advances in Mechanics, 2013, 43(6): 555-580. doi: 10.6052/1000-0992-13-075

Citation:

YIN Xiangchu, LIU Yue. Load-unload response ratio——An interplay between earthquake prediction and mechanics[J]. Advances in Mechanics, 2013, 43(6): 555-580. doi: 10.6052/1000-0992-13-075

YIN Xiangchu, LIU Yue. Load-unload response ratio——An interplay between earthquake prediction and mechanics[J]. Advances in Mechanics, 2013, 43(6): 555-580. doi: 10.6052/1000-0992-13-075

Citation:

YIN Xiangchu, LIU Yue. Load-unload response ratio——An interplay between earthquake prediction and mechanics[J]. Advances in Mechanics, 2013, 43(6): 555-580. doi: 10.6052/1000-0992-13-075

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Load-unload response ratio——An interplay between earthquake prediction and mechanics

doi: 10.6052/1000-0992-13-075

YIN Xiangchu^1,2,
LIU Yue^{1
,
,}

1 State Key Laboratory of Nonlinear Mechanics, Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
2 Institute of Earthquake Science, Chinese Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China

Funds: The project was supported by key project of National Natural Science Foundation (1900102201, 102205), the National Natural Science Foundation innovation group project (10721202, 11021262), the National Key Basic Research Development Program (2004 CB418406), Chinese Academy of Sciences "11^th five-year plan" Special Super Computing Environment Construction and Application of Information Technology (INFO-115-B01)

More Information

Corresponding author: LIU Yue
Received Date: 2013-03-03
Rev Recd Date: 2013-10-28
Publish Date: 2013-11-25

Abstract

Abstract

Earthquake prediction is a scientific challenge to the world's scientists. Being a complex natural phenomenon, earthquake has a quite clear physical nature, that is, a rapid shear fracture in the crust. Accordingly, earthquake preparation is the damage evolution process for the crust media, which eventually leads to catastrophic fracture. This is mainly a mechanical process. Considering this point and grasping the physical nature of seismogenical process, we have put forward a new approach to earthquake prediction in terms of Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) (Yin 1987, Yin 2006).
In the present paper, we introduces the basic scientific problems, including how to load and unload the crust block, how to select proper geophysical parameters as response, and how to define LURR. Based on experiments, numerical simulations and damage mechanics analysis, the universal feature of LURR evolution before a strong earthquake has been revealed. More precisely, LURR fluctuates around 1 at the initial stage of preparation process, and then climbs to an anomalously high value (peak-point). Earthquake does not occur at this time. Instead, there is a delay time duration denoted as T₂, which is related to the magnitude of the event. In order to predict earthquake in China，we propose to conduct countrywide spatial-temporal scanning of LURR, then to integrate with dimensional analysis so as to include more geophysical conditions into consideration. In this way, we have drawn up an approach to predict comprehensively the location, magnitude and occurrence time of forthcoming strong earthquakes. Finally, the practice of earthquake prediction with LURR has been retrospected.
- LURR,
- earthquake prediction,
- peak point,
- dimensional analysis

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References(98)

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