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小行星撞击地球危害评估研究进展

党雷宁 白智勇 石义雷 黄洁

党雷宁, 白智勇, 石义雷, 黄洁. 小行星撞击地球危害评估研究进展. 力学进展, 待出版 doi: 10.6052/1000-0992-23-047
引用本文: 党雷宁, 白智勇, 石义雷, 黄洁. 小行星撞击地球危害评估研究进展. 力学进展, 待出版 doi: 10.6052/1000-0992-23-047
Dang L N, Bai Z Y, Shi Y L, Huang J. Progress in assessing hazards of asteroid impact on Earth. Advances in Mechanics, in press doi: 10.6052/1000-0992-23-047
Citation: Dang L N, Bai Z Y, Shi Y L, Huang J. Progress in assessing hazards of asteroid impact on Earth. Advances in Mechanics, in press doi: 10.6052/1000-0992-23-047

小行星撞击地球危害评估研究进展

doi: 10.6052/1000-0992-23-047
基金项目: 本文工作得到国家自然科学基金面上项目11972358资助, 同时感谢赵君尧同志对撞击地表力学问题的讨论.
详细信息
    作者简介:

    党雷宁, 中国空气动力研究与发展中心高级工程师, 主要从事超高速空气动力学与行星防御研究. 先后主持和参与973子课题、自然基金面上项目等20余项国家级、省部级重点项目. 在国内率先开展小行星进入大气超高速空气动力学问题研究, 发展了专用的小行星撞击地球危害评估软件, 填补了国内空白. 获省部级科技进步一等奖1项、三等奖1项, 发表相关论文20余篇

    黄洁, 中国空气动力研究与发展中心研究员, 长期从事超高速空气动力学、超高速碰撞与空间碎片防护技术研究, 担任《空间碎片研究》、《实验流体力学》等杂志编委, 先后主持完成国家和省部级等重大项目100余项, 获省部级科技进步一等奖1项, 二等奖5项, 三等奖7项, 教学成果一等奖1项, 获发明专利80余项, 发表文章100余篇, 出版专著2部

    通讯作者:

    763869538@qq.com

    huangjie012345@163.com

Progress in assessing hazards of asteroid impact on Earth

More Information
  • 摘要: 小行星撞击地球是人类生存和发展的潜在威胁之一. 行星防御是国际上近20年来兴起的热点研究领域, 也是我国重大安全需求. 小行星撞击地球危害评估是行星防御重要研究内容. 本文认为, 小行星撞击地球危害具有概率低、危害大、随机性的特点, 存在超压、热辐射、地震、海啸、全球效应等五种危害类型, 危害评估有防御决策阶段, 防御实施阶段、地面民防阶段等三个应用场景. 本文总结了五种危害类型的研究现状, 从模型、方法与软件重点阐述了数值仿真与工程计算这两种危害评估手段的研究进展, 介绍了危害评估的输入输出与典型案例, 简要阐述了小行星撞击地球力学问题研究进展, 指出当前研究存在的不足, 并对未来工作进行展望.

     

  • 图  1  近地天体直径、绝对星等、撞击能量与数量和撞击地球频率关系 (Stokes et al. 2017).

    图  2  Tunguska小行星撞击后当地森林破坏情况. 左图: 勘察照片 (Vasilyev 1998). 右图: 当地森林倒伏、辐射直接致燃与着火范围 (Johnston & Stern 2018).

    图  3  Chicxulub小行星撞击海啸产生的海底波纹 (Kinsland et al. 2021).

    图  4  SOVA软件对Chelyabinsk小行星进入大气能量沉积的模拟结果 (Shuvalov et al. 2017). 图中纵轴单位1PW=1015W; QLM (粗黑色实线) 表示QL模型计算结果; SHM (粗灰色实线) 是SH解体模型计算结果; observed (细黑色实线) 是基于视频的观测结果, 周围灰色区域表示观测结果的不确定度.

    图  5  SOVA软件对Chelyabinsk小行星进入大气飞行轨迹的模拟结果 (Shuvalov et al. 2017).图中QLM (粗黑色实线) 表示QL模型计算结果; SHM (粗灰色实线、粗灰色虚线) 是SH解体模型计算结果; 横轴上的箭头cloud observed表示观测得到的尾迹云飞行高度; observed fragments表示碎片飞行轨迹的观测结果.

    图  6  SOVA软件对Chelyabinsk小行星进入大气地面超压的模拟结果 (Shuvalov et al. 2017).图中实心点表示当地建筑物玻璃损坏位置, 空心点表示无损坏. 各级等值线表示不同超压量值, 由外至内依次为500、1000、2000 Pa, 右侧的等值线图例为超压与环境压力的比值. 根据Popova等 (2013) 的研究, 500 Pa使玻璃损坏, 1000 Pa使玻璃严重损坏.

    图  7  SOVA软件对Chelyabinsk小行星进入大气地面辐射照度的模拟结果 (Shuvalov et al. 2017).图中等值线表示辐射照度.

    图  8  GeoClaw软件对假想撞击海啸的模拟结果 (Berger & LeVeque 2021). 云图表示撞击后50分钟的海浪高度, 模拟位置为太平洋西海岸美国华盛顿州格雷斯港, 撞击位于格雷斯港以西150 km, 海底深度4 km, 模拟初始条件为直径3 km、宽度1 km的瞬时撞击坑, 采用ALE3D软件模拟该瞬时撞击坑的演化并将251 s的模拟结果作为初值用于GeoClaw软件对水波传播的模拟

    图  9  小行星撞击地球危害评估工程计算模型关系图

    图  10  解体模型分类 (Galina et al. 2019)

    图  11  基于美国核试验数据对Tunguska小行星进入大气地面超压损伤范围的计算结果 (党雷宁和柳森 2021)

    图  12  小行星撞击地球全球效应死亡人口比例与撞击能量的关系 (Stokes et al. 2017)

    图  13  NASA的小行星进入与撞击地面风险分析评估系统PAIR (Wheeler et al. 2023a)

    图  14  第7届IAA行星防御会议桌面演习流程 (Barbee et al. 2021)

    图  15  第8届IAA行星防御会议桌面演习风险走廊 (Chodas 2023)

    图  16  第8届IAA行星防御会议桌面演习历元1的危害评估工程计算结果 (Wheeler et al. 2023b). 左图: 沿风险走廊北美区域当地危害范围, 黑色实线表示撞击走廊边界 (损伤中心) 位置, 不同色彩覆盖区域表示“严重”、“严峻”、“危急”、“无生存”的当地危害等级范围, 环形覆盖区域为局部取样位置的当地危害等级范围. 右图: 危害概率随影响人口数量区间变化的直方图, 确定撞击下的结果用白色直方图表示, 考虑撞击概率的结果用灰色直方图表示.

    图  17  第8届IAA行星防御桌面演习历元1各危害类型发生概率 (Wheeler et al. 2023b).

    图  18  第8届IAA行星防御会议桌面演习历元2的危害评估工程计算结果 (Wheeler et al. 2023c). 左图: 沿风险走廊当地危害范围, 黑色实线表示撞击走廊边界的损伤中心位置, 不同色彩覆盖区域表示“严重”、“严峻”、“危急”、“无生存”的当地危害等级范围, 环形覆盖区域为局部取样位置的当地危害等级范围. 右图: 危害概率随影响人口数量区间变化的直方图.

    图  19  第8届IAA行星防御会议桌面演习历元2的地面超压数值仿真结果 (Aftosmis et al. 2023). 模拟条件: 小行星直径800 m、进入角54°. 模拟所需的能量沉积来自PAIR软件计算结果. 图中坐标原点为空爆点的星下点.

    表  1  小行星尺寸与危害程度关系 (Barbee et al. 2021)

    小行星直径 事件类型 撞击能量 (MT) 平均撞击频率(years)
    5 m 火流星 0.01 1
    10 m 超级火流星 0.1 10
    25 m 空爆 1 100
    50 m 当地尺度危害 10 1000
    140 m 区域尺度危害 300 20,000
    300 m 大陆尺度危害 2,000 70,000
    600 m 全球尺度危害下限 20,000 200,000
    1 km 全球尺度危害 100,000 700,000
    5 km 全球尺度危害上限 10,000,000 30,000,000
    10 km 物种灭绝 100,000,000 100,000,000
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  NASA Ames研究中心的当地危害等级 (Wheeler et al.2023a)

    危害等级 影响人口比例 冲击波 热辐射
    超压量值
    (psi)
    效应 1MT进入动能下点燃材料的
    辐射照度 (MJ/m2)
    效应
    严重 10% 1 窗户玻璃摇晃、个别建筑物受损 0.25 二级烧伤
    严峻 30% 2 大量建筑受损 0.42 三级烧伤
    危急 60% 4 大多数建筑物倒塌 1.0 衣物燃烧
    无生存 100% 10 建筑物完全毁坏 建筑物燃烧
    注: 1 psi=6895 Pa.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  小行星撞击地球危害评估数值仿真软件对比

    软件 超压 热辐射 地震 海啸 全球效应 主要模型与方法 是否参加行星
    防御演习
    备注
    SOVA × × × 准液体模型, 欧拉方法 × 冲击动力学软件
    CTH × × × 准液体模型, 欧拉方法 冲击动力学软件
    ALE3D × × 强度模型, 欧拉方法 × 冲击动力学软件
    iSALE × × × × 准液体模型, 欧拉方法 × 冲击动力学软件
    NTS × × × × 强度模型, 欧拉方法 × 冲击动力学软件
    Cart3D × × × × 能量沉积源项, 无粘高
    超声速流动模拟方法
    空气动力学软件
    Laura +
    MODTRAN
    × × × × 能量沉积源项, 热化学非
    平衡流动模拟方法, 大气
    传输模拟方法
    × 空气动力学软件
    SAGE × × × 欧拉方法 × 冲击动力学软件
    GEODYN +
    WWP
    × × × 欧拉方法, 浅水波方程 冲击动力学软件 +
    水波动力学软件
    ALE3D +
    GeoClaw
    × × × 欧拉方法, Boussinesq方程 冲击动力学软件 +
    水波动力学软件
    CESM × × × × 气候模拟方法 × 古气候模拟软件
    注: “√”:表示具备该功能; “ × ”表示不具备该功能.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  国内外小行星撞击地球危害评估软件功能对比

    弹道烧蚀解体及空
    中爆炸
    陨石质量、
    落区
    超压热辐射海啸地震全球效应伤亡人口概率评估
    美国NASA的PAIR软件 ×
    伦敦帝国理工大学的
    网页版软件
    × × ×
    俄罗斯科学院的
    网页版软件
    × × × × × × ×
    CARDC的
    AICA软件
    × × ×
    注: “√”:表示具备该功能; “ × ”表示不具备该功能.
    下载: 导出CSV
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