加卸载响应比——地震预测与力学的交叉

尹祥础; 刘月

doi:10.6052/1000-0992-13-075

加卸载响应比——地震预测与力学的交叉

doi: 10.6052/1000-0992-13-075

尹祥础^1,2,
刘月^1, ,

1 中国科学院力学研究所非线性力学国家重点实验室, 北京100190
2 中国地震局地震预测研究所, 北京100036

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金（1900102201, 10232050, 10721202, 11021262）；国家重点基础研究发展规划项目（2004 CB418406）；中国科学院“十一五” 信息化专项“超级计算环境建设与应用”（INFO-115-B01）和中国科学院非线性力学国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目

详细信息

通讯作者:
刘月

中图分类号: P315.6
计量
- 文章访问数: 1817
- HTML全文浏览量: 189
- PDF下载量: 1036
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2013-03-03
- 修回日期: 2013-10-28
- 刊出日期: 2013-11-25

Load-unload response ratio——An interplay between earthquake prediction and mechanics

YIN Xiangchu^1,2,
LIU Yue^{1
, ,}

1 State Key Laboratory of Nonlinear Mechanics, Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
2 Institute of Earthquake Science, Chinese Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China

Funds: The project was supported by key project of National Natural Science Foundation (1900102201, 102205), the National Natural Science Foundation innovation group project (10721202, 11021262), the National Key Basic Research Development Program (2004 CB418406), Chinese Academy of Sciences "11^th five-year plan" Special Super Computing Environment Construction and Application of Information Technology (INFO-115-B01)

More Information

Corresponding author: LIU Yue

摘要

摘要: 地震预测是世界性科学难题，地震现象虽然复杂其物理实质倒是明确：地震就是地壳块体的快速剪切脆断，相应地，地震的孕育过程就是震源区介质的损伤、演化，并最终导致破坏的过程，这一过程主要是力学过程，抓住这一点就抓住了问题的物理本质，但是，在研究地震预测时遇到的力学问题和通常的（工程）力学问题有所不同，根据地震问题的特点，紧扣地震孕育过程的物理本质，提出了加卸载响应比这一地震预测新思路.
文中介绍了加卸载响应比理论的基本科学问题，包括如何对地壳加载/卸载，如何选择适当的地球物理参数作为响应量，以及怎样定义加卸载响应比，用实验研究、数值模拟和理论分析3 种基础研究手段，揭示了地震孕育过程中加卸载响应比共同的演化规律：孕震初期加卸载响应比在1 附近涨落，之后上升至峰值点，地震不在峰值点发生，而是在下降过程中发生，从峰值点到地震发生这段滞后时间称为T₂，T₂ 和震级有关，为了预测地震，必须在全国范围内作加卸载响应比的时空扫描，在时空扫描基础上，结合量纲分析,更多地考虑当地的地球物理条件，拟定了全面预测未来地震的时、空、强的思路，回顾了用这种思路进行地震预测实践的历程，
- 加卸载响应比 /
- 地震预测 /
- 峰值点 /
- 量纲分析
Abstract: Earthquake prediction is a scientific challenge to the world's scientists. Being a complex natural phenomenon, earthquake has a quite clear physical nature, that is, a rapid shear fracture in the crust. Accordingly, earthquake preparation is the damage evolution process for the crust media, which eventually leads to catastrophic fracture. This is mainly a mechanical process. Considering this point and grasping the physical nature of seismogenical process, we have put forward a new approach to earthquake prediction in terms of Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) (Yin 1987, Yin 2006).
In the present paper, we introduces the basic scientific problems, including how to load and unload the crust block, how to select proper geophysical parameters as response, and how to define LURR. Based on experiments, numerical simulations and damage mechanics analysis, the universal feature of LURR evolution before a strong earthquake has been revealed. More precisely, LURR fluctuates around 1 at the initial stage of preparation process, and then climbs to an anomalously high value (peak-point). Earthquake does not occur at this time. Instead, there is a delay time duration denoted as T₂, which is related to the magnitude of the event. In order to predict earthquake in China，we propose to conduct countrywide spatial-temporal scanning of LURR, then to integrate with dimensional analysis so as to include more geophysical conditions into consideration. In this way, we have drawn up an approach to predict comprehensively the location, magnitude and occurrence time of forthcoming strong earthquakes. Finally, the practice of earthquake prediction with LURR has been retrospected.
- LURR /
- earthquake prediction /
- peak point /
- dimensional analysis

HTML全文

参考文献(98)

[1]	Anthony P C. 2009. Numerical analysis of possible correlation between fracture and the effective stiffness in a brittle solid material. [Mater Thesis]. Boston: Tufts University.
[2]	白以龙. 1997. 非线性力学及其应用. 科学中国人, 11: 45-47. (Bai Y L. 1997. Nonlinear mechanics and its ap-plications. Scientiffic Chinese, 11: 45-47 (in Chinese))
[3]	Bai Y L, Lu C S, Ke F J, Xia M F. 1994. Evolution induced catastrophe. Physics Letters A, 185: 196-200.
[4]	Bai Y L, Wang H Y, Xia M F, Ke F J. 2005. Statistical me-somechanics of solid, linking coupled multiple space and time scales. Applied Mechanics Reviews, 58: 372-388. 白以龙, 汪海英, 夏蒙棼, 柯孚久. 2006. 固体的统计细观力学{ 连接多个耦合的时空尺度. 力学进展, 36: 286-305 (Bai Y L, Wang H Y, Xia M F, Ke F J. 2006. Statistical mesomechanics of solid, linking coupled mul-tiple space and time scales. Advances in Mechanics, 36: 286-305 (in Chinese))
[5]	Bai Y L, Xia M F, Ke F J, Lu C S, Ling Z. 1993. Analysis and simulation of evolution induced catastrophe. Chi-nese Physics Letters, l0: l55-158.
[6]	陈建民, 张昭栋, 杨林章, 石荣会, 张继红. 1994. 地下水位固体潮响应比的地震异常. 地震, 1: 73-78 (Chen J M, Zhang Z D, Yang L Z, Shi R H, Zhang J H. 1994. Study on variation of aquifer rock parameters by water level response to earth tide. Earthquake, 1: 73-78 (in Chinese))
[7]	陈棋福, 尹祥础, 马丽. 1996. 加卸载响应比的自然概率分布. 中国地震, 12: 269-274 (Chen Q F. Yin X C, Ma L. The natural probability distribution of load-unload re-sponse ratio. 1996. Earthquake Research in China, 12: 269-274 (in Chinese))
[8]	Chen W G, He K Q, Zhang J. 2012. The theory of unload-load response ratio and its application in debris land-slide forecast. Applied Mechanics and Materials, 166-169: 2735-2739
[9]	常克贵, 高立新, 张建业, 曹井泉. 1999. 加卸载响应比理论在包头西Ms 6.4 地震预报中的应用. 西北地震学报, 21: 350-355 (Chang K G, Gao L X, Zhang J Y, Cao J Q. 1999. Application of the load-unload response ratio theory to predicting the Baotou Ms 6.4 earthquake. Northwestern Seismological Journal, 21: 350-355 (in Chinese))
[10]	Dziewonski A M, Anderson D L. 1981. Preliminary refer-ence earth model. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 25: 297-356.
[11]	Frank P, Benioff V H. 1973. Biographical Memoirs. Wash-ington: National Academy of Sciences.
[12]	贺可强, 周敦云, 王思敬. 2004. 降雨型堆积层滑坡的加卸载响应比特征及其预测作用与意义. 岩石力学与工程学报, 23: 2665-2670 (He K Q, Zhou D Y, Wang S J. 2004. Features of load-unload response ratio and its signifficance in predication of colluvial landslide induced by rainfall. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and En-gineering, 23: 2665-2670 (in Chinese))
[13]	Hosono K, Yin X C, Song Z P. 1996. Did the visitor (the 1995 Hyugoken -nambu Earthquake) come along with the ominous signs? Japans Seismological Annual Meet-ing. Japan: Jaeger J C, Cook N G W. 1979. Fundamentals of Rock Me-chanics (Third Edition). London: Chapman and Hall.
[14]	姜彤, 马莎, 许兵, 马瑾. 2004. 边坡在地震作用下的加卸载响应规律研究. 岩石力学与工程学报, 23: 3803-3807(Jiang T, Ma S, Xu B, Ma J. 2004. Study on laws of load-unload response of slope under seismic load. Chi-nese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 23: 3803-3807 (in Chinese))
[15]	姜彤. 2004. 边坡在地震力作用下的加卸载响应比规律与非线性稳定分析. [博士论文]. 北京: 中国地震局地质研究所(Jiang T. 2004. Load-unload responses of slope sunder seismic load and nonlinear stability analy-sis. [Ph.D Thesis]. Beijing: Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration (in Chinese))
[16]	Kachanov L M. 1980. Continuum model of medium with cracks. Journal of the Engineering Mechanics Division, 106: 1039-1051.
[17]	Kachanov L M. 1986. Introduction to Continuum Damage Mechanics. New York: Springer.
[18]	Kanamori H, Anderson D L. 1975. Theoretical basis of some empirical relation in seismology. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 65: 1073-1096. Krajcinovic D. 1996. Damage Mechanics. Online : Else-vier.
[19]	Куксенко В С, Иин Ксян-чу (Yin X C). 2003. ВлияниеСлабыхМеханическихВоздействий Наповедение Очага Разрушения. Извести яАкадемииНаукСерияФизическая, 67: 877-881(Kucashenko V S, Yin X C. 2003. Impact of slight action to crack initiation. Bulletin of Russia Science Academy, Geophysics series, 67: 877-881(in Russian))
[20]	Laws N, Brockenbrough J R. 1987. The effect of micro-cracks systems on the loss of stiffness of brittle solids. International Journal of Solids and Structures, 23: 1247-1268.
[21]	梁乃刚, 刘庆杰, 李静, 宋海涛. 1997. 链网模型与Si₃N₄ 陶瓷材料宏细观力学行为模拟. 力学学报, 29: 182-188 (Liang N G, Liu Q J, Li J, Song H T. 1997. A chain-network mod el simulating macromechanical be-havior and micro damage evolution of Si₃N₄ ceramics. Acta Mechanica Sinica, 29: 182-188 (in Chinese))
[22]	刘桂萍, 马丽, 尹祥础. 1994. 首都圈地区中等地震前加卸载响应比特征的研究. 地震, 14: 34-39 (Liu G P, Ma L, Yin X C. 1994. Research on the variational features of the response ratio in capital circle area. Earthquake, 14: 34-39 (in Chinese))
[23]	刘晓宇. 2001. 三维链网模型及短纤维增强复合材料行为预测. [博士论文]. 北京: 中国科学院力学研究所 (Liu X Y. 2001. 3-D network model and mechanical behavior simulation of short-ffiber reinforced composites. [Ph.D Thesis]. Beijing: Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Science (in Chinese))
[24]	刘月, 尹祥础, 袁帅, 张浪平. 2012. 量纲分析应用于地震预测的探索. 地球物理学报, 55: 3043-3050 (Liu Y, Yin X C, Yuan S, Zhang L P. 2012. Exploration study of dimension analysis applying to earthquake prediction. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 55: 3043-3050 (in Chi-nese))
[25]	刘月, 尹祥础. 2013. 地震导致的地壳块体损伤的平板模型和加卸载响应比新定义. 地学前缘, 20: 67-72 (Liu Y, Yin X C. 2013. Plate model of crust block's damage induced by earthquake and the new deffinition for LURR. Earth Science Frontiers, 20: 67-72)
[26]	Lyakhovsky V, Ben-Zion, Y, Agnon A. 1997a. Distributed damage, faulting, and friction. Journal of Geophysical Research, 102: 27635-27649.
[27]	Lyakhovsky V, Reches Z, Weinberger R, Scott T E. 1997b. Nonlinear elastic behavior of damaged rocks. Geophysi-cal Journal International, 130: 157-166.
[28]	Mark L. 2010. Earthquake fault scaling: Self-consistent relating of rupture length, width, average displacement, and moment release. Bulletin of the Seismological Soci-ety of America, 100: 1971-1988.
[29]	Mora P, Wang Y C, Yin C, Place D et al. 2002. Simulation of load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model. Pure and Applied of Geophysics, 159: 2525-2536.
[30]	Oda M. 1983. A method for evaluating the effect of crack geometry on the mechanical behavior of cracked rock mass. Mechanics of Materials, 2: 163-171.
[31]	彭克银. 2000. 加卸载响应比理论若干问题的深入研究及其三维数值模拟. [博士论文]. 北京: 中国地震局地球物理研究所(Peng K Y. 2000. A deep study on some problems of load/unload response ratio theory and its 3-D simulation. [Ph.D Thesis]. Beijing: Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration (in Chi-nese))
[32]	彭克银, 尹祥础, 和锐. 2003. 用临界点理论讨论应变能加速释放现象和孕震区尺度. 中国地震, 2003, 19: 425-430 (Peng K Y, Yin X C, He R. 2003. Accelerating strain release and earthquake genesis scaling exponents from critical point hypothesis. Earthquake Research in China, 2003, 19: 425-430 (in Chinese))
[33]	Peng K Y, Yin X C, Zhang L P. 2006. A statistical investi-gation of earthquake predictions using LURR. Pure and Applied of Geophysics, 163: 2353-2362.
[34]	钱伟长. 1993. 应用数学. 安徽: 科学技术出版社. (Qian W C. 1993, Applied Mathematics. Anhui: Science and Technology Press(in Chinese))
[35]	钱学森. 2007. 钱学森书信. 北京: 国防工业出版社 (Qian X S. 2007. Qian Xuesen Letters, Beijing: National Defence Industry Press (in Chinese))
[36]	钱学森. 2008. 钱学森书信选. 北京: 国防工业出版社 (Qian X S. 2008. Selected Qian Xuesen letters, Beijing: National Defence Industry Press (in Chinese))
[37]	任隽, 陈运平, 潘纪顺, 沈繁銮, 符干. 2005. 海南岛及其近海中强地震前加卸载响应比的变化特征. 西北地震学报, 27: 71-74(Ren J, Chen Y P, Pan J S, Shen F L, Fu G. 2005. Variational characteristics of Load/Unload Response Ratio in Hainan island and its adjacent area before moderate-strong earthquakes. Northwestern Seis-mological Journal, 27: 71-74 (in Chinese))
[38]	Sedov L I. 1959. Similarity and Dimensional Methods in Mechanics. London: Academic Press.
[39]	邵宜莲. 2012. 利用LURR 方法探讨台湾1994 年后大地震之前兆现象. [硕士论文]. 台湾: 中央大学沈正康, 王敏, 甘卫军, 张祖胜. 2003. 中国大陆现今构造应变率场及其动力学成因研究. 地学前缘, 10: 93-100(Shen Z K, Wang M, Gan W J, Zhang Z S. 2003. Contemporary tectonic strain rate ffield of Chinese con-tinent and its geodynamic implications. Earth Science Frontiers, 10: 93-100 (in Chinese))
[40]	勝山邦久. 1996. 声发射技术的应用(中译本). 北京: 冶金工业出版社(Katsuyama K. 1996. Application of Acoustic Emission Technique (Chinese version), Beijing: Metallurgical Industry Press (in Chinese))
[41]	施行觉, 许和明, 万永中, 卢振刚. 1994. 模拟引潮力作用下的岩石破裂特征: 加卸载响应比理论的实验研究之一. 地球物理学报. 37: 633-637 (Shi X J, Xu H M, Wan Y Z, Lu Z G. 1994. The characteristic of rock fracture under simulated tide force: laboratory study on the theory of loading and unloading response ratio. Acta Geophysica Sinica, 37: 633-637 (in Chinese))
[42]	宋治平, 尹祥础, 王裕仓, 徐平, 薛艳. 2000. 美国加州地区地震前加卸载响应比的时空演化特征及预测意义. 地震学报, 22: 588-595 (Song Z P, Yin X. C, Wang Y C, Xu P, Xue Y. 2000. The tempo-spatial evolution before earthquake in USA and its implications. Acta Seismo-logica Sinica, 22: 588-595(in Chinese))
[43]	谈庆明. 2007. 量纲分析. 合肥: 中国科学技术大学出版社(Tan Q M. 2007. Dimensional Analysis. Hefei: Press of University of Science and Technology of China(in Chi-nese))
[44]	Trotta J E, Tullis T E. 2006. An independent assess-ment of the load/unload response ratio (LURR) pro-posed method of earthquake prediction. Pure and Ap-plied Geophysics, 163: 2375-2388.
[45]	USGS. 2010. Earthquakes and Plate Tectonics (2009). USGS earthquake hazards program. Retrieved June 03, 2010. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/topics/plate tectonics/rift man. php
[46]	Walsh J B. 1965a. The effect of cracks on the compressibil-ity of rock. Journal of Geophysical Research, 70: 381-389.
[47]	Walsh J B. 1965c. The effect of cracks in rock on Poisson's ratio. Journal of Geophysical Research, 70: 5249-57.
[48]	Walsh J. B. 1965b. The effect of cracks in the uniaxial elastic compression of rocks. Journal of Geophysical Re-search, 70: 399-411.
[49]	王海涛. 1999. 加卸载响应比理论在地震预报中的应用综合研究. [博士论文]. 北京: 中国地震局地球物理研究所. (Wang H T. 1999. Comprehensive study of LURR theory in application of earthquake prediction. [Ph.D Thesis]. Beijing: Institute of Geophysics, Chinese Earthquake Administration (in Chinese))
[50]	王裕仓, 宋志平, 細野耕司, 尹祥础. 1998. 日本兵库南部地震和关东地区强震前正负地震的演变特征及其对地震预测的意义. 地震学报, 20: 29-35 (Wang Y C, Song Z P, Hosono, Yin X C. 1998. The Hyugoken-nambu earthquake and the evolution feature of loading/unloading earthquakes before strong earthquake in Japan Kanto region, and its implications to earthquake prediction. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 20: 29-35 (in Chi-nese))
[51]	Wang Y C, Yin X C, Ke F J, Xia M F, Peng K Y. 2000. Numerical simulation of rock failure and earthquake pro-cess on mesoscopic scale. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 157: 1905-1928.
[52]	王裕仓. 2000. 地震过程的数值模拟及可预测性研究. [博士后工作报告]. 北京: 中国科学院力学研究所(Wang Y C. 2000. Numerical simulation of earth-quake process and predictability of earthquake. [Post-doctoral Report]. Beijing: Institute of Mechanics, Chi-nese Academy of Science (in Chinese))
[53]	Weibull, B. 1951. A statistical distribution function of wide applicability. Journal of Applied Mechanics, 18: 293-297.
[54]	夏蒙棼, 韩闻生, 柯孚久, 白以龙. 1995. 统计细观损伤力学和损伤演化诱致突变(I). 力学进展, 25: 1-40 (Xia M F, Han W S, Ke F J, Bai Y L. 1995. Statistical mesoscopic damage mechanics and damage evolution in-duced catastrophe (I). Advances in Mechanics, 25: 1-40 (in Chinese))
[55]	夏蒙棼, 柯孚久, 白以龙．1997. 固体破坏的损伤演化诱致突变现象. 物理, 26: 140 -146 (Xia M F, Ke F J, Bai Y L. 1997. (Damage evolution of solid destruction induced catastrophe phenomenon. Physics, 26: 140-146 (in Chinese))
[56]	徐和钦. 1999. 非均匀材料损伤破坏的数值模拟软件开发及强韧化机理研究. [硕士论文]. 北京: 中国科学院力学研究所(Xu H Q. 1999. Software development of damage evolution of heterogeneous materials and in-vestigation for reinforcing mechanism. [Master Thesis]. Beijing: Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sci-ence (in Chinese))
[57]	许强, 黄润秋. 1995. 用加卸载响应比理论探讨斜坡失稳前兆. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 6: 25-31. (Xu Q, Huang R Q. 1995. Studies on the precursor of slope insta-bility applying to the load-unload response ratio theory. Chinese Journal of Geological Disasters, 6: 25-31. (in Chinese))
[58]	许向红. 2005. 岩石的细观非均匀性对其宏观变形、损伤和灾变的影响. [博士论文]. 北京: 中国科学院力学研究所. (Xu X H. 2005. Effect of mesoscopic hetero-geneity on macroscopic deformation, damage and catas-trophic failure of rock. [Ph.D Thesis]. Beijing: Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Science (in Chinese))
[59]	许昭永, 杨润海, 王彬, 赵晋明, 王赟赟, 梅世蓉. 2002. 负坡段加卸载响应比的物理意义及预测效能. 地震学报, 24: 42-49 (Xu Z Y, Yang R H, Wang B, Zhao J M, Wang Y Y, Mei S R. 2002. Physical meaning and prediction efficiency of the load/unload response ratio of rocks in the strain-weakening phase before failure. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 24: 42-49 (in Chinese))
[60]	杨卫. 1995. 宏微观断裂力学. 北京: 国防工业出版社 (Yang W. 1995. Macro and Micro Fracture Mechanics. Beijing: National Defence Industry Press (in Chinese))
[61]	尹灿. 1990. 潮汐应力与地震预报. [硕士论文]. 北京: 中国地震局地球物理研究所(Yin C. 1990. Study on tidal stress and earthquake prediction. [Master Thesis]. Beijing: Institute of Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Science (in Chinese))
[62]	Yin C. 2005. Exploring the underlying mechanism of load/unload response ratio theory and its application to earthquake prediction. [Ph.D Thesis]. Australia: Uni-versity of Queensland.
[63]	Yin C, Mora P. 2004. Some preliminary thoughts about the LURR Phenomenon. In: Proceedings of the 4th ACES Workshop. Beijing, China. 85-87, July, 2004.
[64]	Yin C, Mora P. 2006. Stress reorientation and LURR: Im-plication for earthquake prediction using LURR. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 163: 2363-2375.
[65]	尹祥础. 1987. 地震预测新途径的探索. 中国地震3: 1-7 (Yin X C. 1987. The new approach of earthquake prediction. Earthquake Research in China, 3: 1-7 (in Chinese))
[66]	ИинКсян-чу. 1993. НовыйПодходкПрогногуЗ емлетрясенийПРИРОДА. 1: 20-27 (Yin X C. 1993. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction. PRERODA (Russia's "Nature"), 1: 21-27 (in Russian))
[67]	尹祥础. 2004. 地震预报的新途径--从加卸载响应比理论. 力学与实践, 26: 1-7 (Yin X C. 2004. A new ap-proach to earthquake prediction-Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR) theory. Mechanics in Engineering, 26: 1-7 (in Chinese))
[68]	尹祥础. 2012. 在钱学森工程科学思想指引下, 创建新的地震预测理论——加卸载响应比. 见: 钱学森先生诞辰100 周年纪念文集, 北京: 科学出版社, 157-160 尹祥础, 陈学忠, 宋治平, 尹灿. 1994. 加卸载响应比理论: 一种新的地震预报方法. 地球物理学报, 37: 767-775(Yin X C, Chen X Z, Song Z P, Yin C. 1994. The load-unload response ratio theory: A new approach to earthquake prediction. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 37: 767-775 (in Chinese))
[69]	Yin X C, Chen X Z, Song Z P, Yin C. 1994. The load-unload response ratio theory and its application to earth-quake prediction. Journal of Earthquake Prediction Re-search, 3: 325-333.
[70]	Yin X C, Chen X Z, Song Z P, Yin C. 1995. A new approach to earthquake prediction-the load/unload response ratio (LURR) theory. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 145: 701-715.
[71]	Yin X C, Liu Y, Mora P, Yuan S, Zhang L P. 2013. New progress in LURR-integrating with the dimensional method. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 170: 229-236.
[72]	Yin X C, Mora P, Peng K Y, Wang Y C, Weatherley D. 2002. Load-unload response ratio and accelerating mo-ment/energy release, critical region scaling and earth-quake prediction. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 159: 2511-2524.
[73]	Yin X C, Wang Y C, Pang K Y, Bai Y L, Wang H T, Yin X F. 2000. Development of a new approach to earthquake prediction: load/unload response ratio (LURR) theory. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 157: 2365-2383.
[74]	Yin X C, Yin C, Chen X Z. 1994. The precursor of insta-bility for nonlinear system and its application to earth-quake prediction-the load-unload response ratio theory. Non-linear Dynamics and Predictability of Geophysical Phenomena, 55-60.
[75]	Yin X C, Yu H Z, Kukshenko V, Xu Z Y, Wu Z S, Li M, Peng K Y, Elizarov S, Li Q. 2004. Load-unload re-sponse ratio (LURR), accelerating moment/energy re-lease (AM/ER) and state vector as precursors to failure of rock specimens. In: Computational Earthquake Sci-ence Part Ⅱ. Springer: BirkhÄauser Basel, 2405-2416.
[76]	尹祥础, 张晖辉, 张浪平. 2005. 从加卸载响应比的变化预测中国大陆地震趋势. 见: 中国地震趋势预测研究(2006 年度), 中国地震局地震预测研究所编, 北京: 地震出版社, 92-96 (Yin X C, Zhang H H, Zhang L P. 2005. According the evolution of LURR to predict the earthquake trend for Chinese mainland. In: Research in Earthquake Trend for China, edited by Institute of Earthquake Science China Earthquake Administration, Beijing: Seismological Press, 92-96 (in Chinese))
[77]	Yin X C, Zhang L P, Zhang H H, Yin C, Wang Y C, Zhang Y X, Peng K Y, Wang H T, Song Z P, Yu H Z, et al. 2006. LURR's twenty years and its perspective. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 163: 2317-2341.
[78]	Yin X C, Zhang L P, Zhang Y X, Peng K Y, Wang H T, Song Z P, Yu H Z, Zhang H H, Yin C, Wang Y C. 2008. The newest developments of load-unload response ratio (LURR). Pure and Applied Geophysics, 165: 711-722.
[79]	Yin X C, Zhang L P, Zhang Y X, Peng K Y, Wang H T, Song Z P, Zhang X T, Yuan S. 2009. The peak point of LURR and its signifficance. Concurrency and Computa-tion: Practice and Experience, 22: 1549-1558.
[80]	余怀忠. 2004. 非均匀脆性介质破坏前兆与地震预测理论的实验研究. [博士论文]. 北京: 中国科学院力学研究所(Yu H Z. 2004. Experimental research on pre-cursors of brittle heterogeneous media and earthquake prediction methods. [PhD Thesis]. Beijing: Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Science (in Chinese))
[81]	Yu H Z, Shen Z K, Wan Y G, Zhu Q Y. 2006. Increas-ing critical sensitivity of the load/unload response Ratio before large earthquakes with identiffied stress accumula-tion pattern. Tectonophysics, 428: 87-94.
[82]	余寿文, 冯西桥. 1997. 损伤力学. 北京: 清华大学出版社.
[83]	宇津德治. 1990. 地震事典(中译本). 北京: 地震出版社.
[84]	袁帅. 2011. 加卸载响应比应用于短期地震预测的探索. [硕士论文]. 北京: 中国科学院力学研究所(Yuan S. 2011. The exploration of load-unload response ratio in short-term earthquake prediction. [Master Thesis]. Bei-jing: Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Science (in Chinese))
[85]	张晖辉. 2006. 非均匀脆性介质的灾变预测－加卸载响应比理论的研究与实践. [博士论文]. 北京: 中国科学院力学研究所(Zhang H H. 2006. Catas-trophic failure prediction of heterogeneous brittle media: study and practice of load/unload response ratio theory. [Ph.D Thesis]. Beijing: Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Science (in Chinese))
[86]	张晖辉, 尹祥础, 梁乃刚. 2005. 中国大陆地区中强地震前加卸载响应比异常时间尺度的统计研究. 中国地震, 21: 486-495 (Zhang H H, Yin X C, Liang N G. 2005. Statistic study of LURR anomaly temporal scale before moderately strong earthquakes on the Chinese mainland. Earthquake Research in China, 21: 486-495 (in Chinese))
[87]	Zhang H H, Yin X C, Liang N G, Yu H Z, Li S Y, Wang Y C, Yin C, Kukshenko V, Tomiline N, Elizarov S. 2006. Acoustic emission experiments of rock failure under load simulating the hypocenter condition. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 163: 2389-2406.
[88]	Zhang J, He K Q, Wang S Q, Wang W. 2012. The ap-plication of ULRR-rainfall coupled in forecast prediction on Debris Landslide. Advanced Materials Research, 446-449: 3023-3026
[89]	张浪平. 2009. 孕震条件下介质的损伤演化与地震预测研究. [博士论文]. 北京: 中国科学院力学研究所 (Zhang L P. 2009. Study on damage of heterogeneous brittle media in seismogenic conditions and earthquake prediction. [Ph.D Thesis]. Beijing: Institute of Mechan-ics, Chinese Academy of Science (in Chinese)) 张浪平, 余怀忠, 尹祥础, 梁乃刚. 2010. 加卸载响应比方法在结构灾变预测中的应用. 工程力学, 27: 228-235 (Zhang L P, Yu H Z, Yin X C, Liang N G. 2010. Application of the load/unload response ratio method in catastrophic failure prediction of structures. Engineering Mechanics, 27: 228-235 (in Chinese))
[90]	Zhang L P, Yu H Z, Yin X C. 2012. Failure potential eval-uation in engineering experiments using load/unload re-sponse ratio method. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 170: 237-245.
[91]	张文杰, 陈云敏, 贺可强. 2005. 加卸载响应比理论应用于堆积层滑坡预报. 自然灾害学报, 14: 79-83 (Zhang W J, Chen Y M, He K Q. 2005. Application of load-ing/unloading response ratio theory to prediction of ac-cumulative landslide. Journal of Natural Disasters, 14: 79-83 (in Chinese))
[92]	ZhangWJ, Chen Y M, Zhan L T. 2006. Loading/unloading response ratio (LURR) theory applied in predicting deep-seated landslides triggering. Engineering Geology, 82: 234-240.
[93]	Zhang Y X, Liu Y, Yin X C, Rundle J. 2013. SE06-A018 spatial and temporal variation of LURR before the mex-ico M 7.2. In: 2010 Earthquake and Its Implication to Earthquake Forecast. Asia Oceania Geosciences Society 10th Annual Meeting, Brisbane.
[94]	Zhang Y X, Yin X C, Peng K Y. 2004. Spatial and temporal variation of LURR and its implication for the tendency of earthquake occurrence in southern California, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 161: 2359-2367.
[95]	Zhang Y X, Yin X C, Peng K Y, Wang H T, Zheng J C, Wu Y J, Zhang L P. 2006. LURR and the san simeon M6.5 earthquake in 2003 and the seismic tendency in CA. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 163: 2343-2351.
[96]	张昭栋, 刘庆国. 1999. 1989 年大同6.1 级地震前后地下水位固体潮加卸载响应比的变化. 西北地震学报, 21: 356-362 (Zhang Z D, Liu G Q. 1999. Variation of load-ing and unloading response ratio of ground water level to earth tides before and after the datong Ms6.1 earth-quake in 1989. Northwestern Seismological Journal, 21: 356-362 (in Chinese))
[97]	中国地震局地震预测研究所. 2008. 震情研究汇总报告. 见: 中国大陆强震趋势预测研究(2009 年度), 中国地震局地震预测研究所编, 北京: 地震出版社, 3-92 (Institute of Earthquake Science, China Earthquake Administration. 2008. General report. In: Research on Strong Earthquake Trend Tendency in Chinese Main-land in 2009, edited by Institute of Earthquake Science, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing: Seismologi-cal Press, 3-92 (in Chinese))
[98]	庄建仓. 1999. 几种随机模型下加卸载响应比的随机分布研究. [硕士论文]. 北京: 中国地震局地震预测研究所(Zhuang J C. 1999. Study on random distribution of load-unload response ratio with several statistical mod-els. [Master Thesis]. Beijing: Institute of Earthquake Science, China Earthquake Administration (in Chinese))