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加卸载响应比——地震预测与力学的交叉

尹祥础 刘月

尹祥础, 刘月. 加卸载响应比——地震预测与力学的交叉[J]. 力学进展, 2013, 43(6): 555-580. doi: 10.6052/1000-0992-13-075
引用本文: 尹祥础, 刘月. 加卸载响应比——地震预测与力学的交叉[J]. 力学进展, 2013, 43(6): 555-580. doi: 10.6052/1000-0992-13-075
YIN Xiangchu, LIU Yue. Load-unload response ratio——An interplay between earthquake prediction and mechanics[J]. Advances in Mechanics, 2013, 43(6): 555-580. doi: 10.6052/1000-0992-13-075
Citation: YIN Xiangchu, LIU Yue. Load-unload response ratio——An interplay between earthquake prediction and mechanics[J]. Advances in Mechanics, 2013, 43(6): 555-580. doi: 10.6052/1000-0992-13-075

加卸载响应比——地震预测与力学的交叉

doi: 10.6052/1000-0992-13-075
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(1900102201, 10232050, 10721202, 11021262);国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2004 CB418406);中国科学院“十一五” 信息化专项“超级计算环境建设与应用”(INFO-115-B01)和中国科学院非线性力学国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目
详细信息
    通讯作者:

    刘月

  • 中图分类号: P315.6

Load-unload response ratio——An interplay between earthquake prediction and mechanics

Funds: The project was supported by key project of National Natural Science Foundation (1900102201, 102205), the National Natural Science Foundation innovation group project (10721202, 11021262), the National Key Basic Research Development Program (2004 CB418406), Chinese Academy of Sciences "11th five-year plan" Special Super Computing Environment Construction and Application of Information Technology (INFO-115-B01)
More Information
    Corresponding author: LIU Yue
  • 摘要: 地震预测是世界性科学难题,地震现象虽然复杂其物理实质倒是明确:地震就是地壳块体的快速剪切脆断,相应地,地震的孕育过程就是震源区介质的损伤、演化,并最终导致破坏的过程,这一过程主要是力学过程,抓住这一点就抓住了问题的物理本质,但是,在研究地震预测时遇到的力学问题和通常的(工程)力学问题有所不同,根据地震问题的特点,紧扣地震孕育过程的物理本质,提出了加卸载响应比这一地震预测新思路.
    文中介绍了加卸载响应比理论的基本科学问题,包括如何对地壳加载/卸载,如何选择适当的地球物理参数作为响应量,以及怎样定义加卸载响应比,用实验研究、数值模拟和理论分析3 种基础研究手段,揭示了地震孕育过程中加卸载响应比共同的演化规律:孕震初期加卸载响应比在1 附近涨落,之后上升至峰值点,地震不在峰值点发生,而是在下降过程中发生,从峰值点到地震发生这段滞后时间称为T2T2 和震级有关,为了预测地震,必须在全国范围内作加卸载响应比的时空扫描,在时空扫描基础上,结合量纲分析,更多地考虑当地的地球物理条件,拟定了全面预测未来地震的时、空、强的思路,回顾了用这种思路进行地震预测实践的历程,

     

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  • 收稿日期:  2013-03-03
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